Global Futures: Modelling the global economic impacts of environmental change to support policy-making
The report Modelling the global economic impacts of environmental change to support policy-making report, by an Global Futures initiative, which is promoted by WWF, Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) and Natural Capital Project, warns about the potential risks to global economic prosperity if we don´t urgently take action to stop nature loss. The study uses new economic and environmental modelling to calculate the costs of nature’s decline across 140 countries and all key industry sectors. The document shows that in a ‘Business-as-Usual’ (BAU) scenario, reduced supply of six ecosystem services alone — pollination of crops, protection of coasts from flooding and erosion, supply of water, timber production, marine fisheries and carbon storage—would lead to a drop of 0.67 % in annual global GDP by 2050. Over the period between 2011 and 2050, the total cumulative loss would be US$ 9.87 trillion (3% discount rate).